The two questions that decide it
Every refinance comes down to a pair of tests, and skipping the second is how people talk themselves into a bad deal.
1. Will you still hold the loan at break-even?
Closing costs divided by the monthly saving gives the number of months before the deal has paid for itself. On a $280,000 balance moving from 7.25% to 5.9% with $6,500 of costs, the payment drops about $336 and the simple break-even is roughly 19 months.
If you expect to sell or refinance again before that date, the deal loses money regardless of how good the rate looks.
2. Are you resetting the clock?
This is the one that gets hidden. Refinancing a loan with 26 years remaining into a fresh 30-year term lowers the payment for two reasons: the rate fell, and you spread the debt across four extra years. Only the first is a saving.
Run the same balance and rate but set the new term to match the years you have left, and you isolate the rate's effect. Our refinance break-even calculator shows both figures side by side, and charts the true crossing point.
The honest break-even
Simple break-even counts cash flow only. A stricter test asks what each option has cost you at any moment: payments made so far, plus the balance you still owe.
Measured that way the crossover arrives later — on the figures above, closer to 21 months than 19 — because the longer new term pays principal down more slowly. For a while you are saving on the payment while owing more than you otherwise would.
Neither number is wrong. The first answers "when is my cash flow ahead?" The second answers "when am I genuinely better off?" You should know both before signing.
The three kinds of refinance
Rate-and-term
Replace the loan with a cheaper or shorter one, borrowing roughly the same amount. The plain vanilla case, and the one the maths above describes.
Cash-out
Borrow more than you owe and take the difference. Rates run higher than rate-and-term, loan-to-value limits are tighter, and you are converting home equity into spendable money — sensible for a renovation that adds value, expensive for a holiday.
The critical point: cash-out at today's rates when you hold a 3% mortgage means repricing your entire balance, not just the new money. A HELOC or second mortgage may cost far less overall even at a higher headline rate, because it leaves the cheap first mortgage alone.
Streamline
FHA, VA and USDA offer reduced-documentation refinances for existing borrowers of the same programme — no appraisal in many cases, and lighter underwriting. Worth asking about if your current loan is government-backed.
What refinancing actually costs
Expect 2–5% of the loan amount. On $280,000 that is $5,600 to $14,000, typically covering:
- Origination or underwriting, often 0.5–1%
- Appraisal, $400–$800
- Title search and lender's title insurance, $700–$2,000
- Credit report, flood certification, recording fees
- Prepaid interest, plus escrow funding
- Discount points if you buy the rate down
On rolling costs into the loan
It preserves cash, and it is not free. Those costs then accrue interest at the new rate for the entire term, and the real break-even moves further out than the simple division suggests. A "no-cost refinance" is a loan where the costs are paid through a higher rate — sometimes the right choice, never actually free.
Is a 1% drop enough?
The old rule of thumb — refinance when rates fall a point — is too crude to be useful. What matters is the interaction of four things:
- Balance size. A 0.5% cut on $600,000 beats a 1.5% cut on $80,000.
- Closing costs as a share of the balance.
- Remaining term and whether the new one matches it.
- How long you will genuinely stay. Be honest rather than optimistic.
Reasons that are not about rate
Several sound refinances have nothing to do with saving interest:
- Dropping mortgage insurance. FHA loans carry MIP for the life of the loan in most cases. Refinancing to a conventional loan once you hold 20% equity removes it, and the saving can dwarf any rate difference.
- Escaping an adjustable rate before a reset.
- Removing a co-borrower after a divorce, which generally requires a refinance rather than a name change.
- Shortening deliberately. Moving 30 years to 15 raises the payment and slashes total interest.
Before you apply
- Pull your credit and fix errors first; the rate you are offered depends on it.
- Gather Loan Estimates from at least three lenders within a two-week window, so the credit enquiries count as one.
- Compare on the same term and the same points, or you are not comparing.
- Check your existing note for a prepayment penalty.
- Ask about the escrow refund — your old account is returned, which is cash back, not a saving.
- Avoid opening new credit between application and closing.